哮喘联盟

   摘要
   背景：近期有证据表明哮喘负担的动态分布趋势与某些国家声称哮喘患病率下降的报告并不相吻合。在加拿大人口最多的省份——安大略省， 1996～2005年间哮喘的患病率以每年0.5%的速度增长。基于以人群为基础的十多年卫生服务数据，这些评估为预估哮喘负担的发展趋势提供了有力的数据资源。本研究目的旨在通过观察哮喘发生率和患病率的人口趋势，预测未来的疾病负担。
   方法：安大略哮喘监测信息系统采用健康管理数据库来甄别和跟踪本省的哮喘患者。本研究纳入了1996年4月1日～2010年3月31日期间被诊断哮喘的患者。基于年度数据，研究者采用指数平滑模型预测2022年的哮喘发生率，将累计预计发生率应用于预计人口，以此来评估哮喘的患病率。
   结果：哮喘发生率下降的同时，哮喘患病的绝对例数仍将持续增加。我们预计，到2022年安大略省几乎每8个人中就有一个人将患有哮喘。这表明，哮喘仍将继续成为个人乃至整个医疗卫生体系中主要的疾病负担。
   结论：这些预测有助于提醒医疗卫生的规划人员和政策制定者们，应考虑重新分配资源以优化哮喘的治疗效果。

（苏楠 审校）
BMC Public Health. 2013 Mar 21;13(1):254. [Epub ahead of print]
 

Is asthma a vanishing disease? A study to forecast the burden of asthma in 2022.

To T, Stanojevic S, Feldman R, Moineddin R, Atenafu EG, Guan J, Gershon AS.

Abstract
BACKGROUND: Recent evidence regarding temporal trends of asthma burden has not been consistent, with some countries reporting decreases in prevalence of asthma. In Ontario, the province in Canada with the highest population, the prevalence of asthma rose at a rate of 0.5% per year between 1996 and 2005. These estimates were based on population-based health services use data spanning more than a decade and provide a powerful source to forecast the trends of asthma burden. The objective of this study was to use observed population trends data of asthma incidence and prevalence to forecast future disease burden.
METHODS:The Ontario Asthma Surveillance Information System (OASIS) used health administrative databases to identify and track all individuals in the province with asthma. Individuals with asthma identified between April 1, 1996 and March 31, 2010 were included. Exponential smoothing models were applied to annual data to project incidence to the year 2022, prevalence was estimated by applying the cumulative projected incidence to the projected population.
RESULTS:While asthma incidence is falling, the absolute number of prevalent cases will continue to rise. We projected that almost 1 in 8 individuals in Ontario will have asthma by the year 2022, suggesting that asthma will continue to be a major burden on individuals and the health care system.
CONCLUSIONS:These projections will help inform health care planners and decision-makers regarding resource allocation to optimize asthma outcomes.
 

BMC Public Health. 2013 Mar 21;13(1):254. [Epub ahead of print]