控烟政策对未来全球吸烟趋势的潜在影响
2012/07/05
摘要
背景：基于世界卫生组织2010年开始推荐的多种控烟措施（MPOWER一揽子政策），对2020年至2030年的全球吸烟率进行预测。
方法：数据来自于WHO全球信息数据库和WHO全球成人烟草调查。作者针对60个国家构建了成人吸烟率时间序列，这些国家的烟民占全世界的90%，人口占全世界的85%。作者采用存量和流量模型，预测有和无MPOWER政策时这些国家在2020年和2030年的吸烟率。对结果总结后，报道区域和全球数据。
结果：全球成人吸烟者在2010年预计为23.7%。如果这些国家没有其他额外的控烟政策出台，且2010年的吸烟率和戒烟率维持，作者估计全球的吸烟率在2020年可能为22.7%，2030年为22.0%（8亿7千2百万）。如果自2010年起全球实施MPOWER政策，伴随烟草的价格翻倍，作者估计，全球的吸烟率在2010年为15.4%，2030年为13.2%（5亿2千3百万烟民）。
结论：结果显示，基于全球吸烟流行程度和轨迹，我们可以预测是否有必要即刻实施，或全球范围内实施循证控烟政策。由于终身吸烟者半数死于烟草相关疾病，如果MPOWER能在全球范围内实施，数十年内可避免数百万的人死于烟草相关疾病。
（陈欣 审校）
Tob Control. 2012 Apr 25. [Epub ahead of print]
The potential impact of smoking control policies on future global smoking trends.
Méndez D, Alshanqeety O, Warner KE.
Source
Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND：The authors develop projections for global smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030 with and without the implementation, starting in 2010, of the WHO’s recommended multipronged approach to tobacco control known as the MPOWER policy package.
METHODS：Using data from the WHO’s Global InfoBase Database and the WHO’s Global Adult Tobacco Survey, the authors construct adult cigarette smoking prevalence time series for 60 countries that account for 90% of the world’s smokers and 85% of the world’s population. The authors then use a stock/flow model to project those countries’ smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030, with and without the implementation of MPOWER. The authors aggregate the results and report regional and global figures.
RESULTS：The authors estimate global adult cigarette smoking prevalence in 2010 to be 23.7%. If no additional policies are set in place and the initiation and cessation rates existing in 2010 persist, the authors estimate that global prevalence will be 22.7% by 2020 and 22.0% by 2030 (872 million smokers). If MPOWER had been implemented globally starting in 2010 with a 100% price increase for cigarettes, the authors estimate that global cigarette smoking prevalence would be 15.4% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2030 (523 million smokers).
CONCLUSIONS：The estimates indicate the magnitude and trajectory of the global tobacco pandemic and of the impact the authors could expect if evidence-based tobacco control policies were applied immediately and universally throughout the world. As half of lifetime smokers die of tobacco-related diseases, if MPOWER were applied globally, within a few decades, many millions of premature tobacco-related deaths would be avoided.
Tob Control. 2012 Apr 25. [Epub ahead of print]
背景：基于世界卫生组织2010年开始推荐的多种控烟措施（MPOWER一揽子政策），对2020年至2030年的全球吸烟率进行预测。
方法：数据来自于WHO全球信息数据库和WHO全球成人烟草调查。作者针对60个国家构建了成人吸烟率时间序列，这些国家的烟民占全世界的90%，人口占全世界的85%。作者采用存量和流量模型，预测有和无MPOWER政策时这些国家在2020年和2030年的吸烟率。对结果总结后，报道区域和全球数据。
结果：全球成人吸烟者在2010年预计为23.7%。如果这些国家没有其他额外的控烟政策出台，且2010年的吸烟率和戒烟率维持，作者估计全球的吸烟率在2020年可能为22.7%，2030年为22.0%（8亿7千2百万）。如果自2010年起全球实施MPOWER政策，伴随烟草的价格翻倍，作者估计，全球的吸烟率在2010年为15.4%，2030年为13.2%（5亿2千3百万烟民）。
结论：结果显示，基于全球吸烟流行程度和轨迹，我们可以预测是否有必要即刻实施，或全球范围内实施循证控烟政策。由于终身吸烟者半数死于烟草相关疾病，如果MPOWER能在全球范围内实施，数十年内可避免数百万的人死于烟草相关疾病。
（陈欣 审校）
Tob Control. 2012 Apr 25. [Epub ahead of print]
The potential impact of smoking control policies on future global smoking trends.
Méndez D, Alshanqeety O, Warner KE.
Source
Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND：The authors develop projections for global smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030 with and without the implementation, starting in 2010, of the WHO’s recommended multipronged approach to tobacco control known as the MPOWER policy package.
METHODS：Using data from the WHO’s Global InfoBase Database and the WHO’s Global Adult Tobacco Survey, the authors construct adult cigarette smoking prevalence time series for 60 countries that account for 90% of the world’s smokers and 85% of the world’s population. The authors then use a stock/flow model to project those countries’ smoking prevalence for the years 2020 and 2030, with and without the implementation of MPOWER. The authors aggregate the results and report regional and global figures.
RESULTS：The authors estimate global adult cigarette smoking prevalence in 2010 to be 23.7%. If no additional policies are set in place and the initiation and cessation rates existing in 2010 persist, the authors estimate that global prevalence will be 22.7% by 2020 and 22.0% by 2030 (872 million smokers). If MPOWER had been implemented globally starting in 2010 with a 100% price increase for cigarettes, the authors estimate that global cigarette smoking prevalence would be 15.4% in 2020 and 13.2% in 2030 (523 million smokers).
CONCLUSIONS：The estimates indicate the magnitude and trajectory of the global tobacco pandemic and of the impact the authors could expect if evidence-based tobacco control policies were applied immediately and universally throughout the world. As half of lifetime smokers die of tobacco-related diseases, if MPOWER were applied globally, within a few decades, many millions of premature tobacco-related deaths would be avoided.
Tob Control. 2012 Apr 25. [Epub ahead of print]
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