哮喘联盟

   摘要
   背景和目的：尽管流行性感冒与哮喘发作有关，但此关联影响美国医疗保健使用的程度尚不清楚。本设计的首要目标为确定哮喘住院发生数与流感季节变化是否有关以及关联性如何。其次，我们利用流感趋势（2000-2008）帮助预测2009年H1N1大流行性流感哮喘住院情况。
   方法：我们在来自记录了原始哮喘诊断的医疗保健费用和使用项目的全国住院样本中选出了1998-2008间的所有住院患者，同时分别选出在这期间记录发生流感的所有住院患者。我们进行了时间序列回归性分析以分析每月哮喘入院数与流感发生率的关系。最后，我们使用1998-2008年的数据应用这些时间序列回归模型，以预测2009年大流行性流感的每月哮喘入院数。
   结果：基于时间序列回归分析模型，同期流感病毒活动强度与哮喘住院发生率之间存在强、显著关联（p值<0.0001）。利用流感数据来预测2009年H1N1大流行时哮喘住院数可改善预测平均方差60.2%。
   结论：人群流感病毒活动强度与美国哮喘住院数明显相关，这种相关性可开发用于更精确地预测哮喘住院数。我们的结果提示对流感的监测、预防和治疗可能降低哮喘患者的住院次数。
 

（苏楠 审校）
Respirology. 2013 Aug 12. doi: 10.1111/resp.12165. [Epub ahead of print]
 

Association of Hospitalizations for Asthma with Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza.
 

Gerke AK, Yang M, Tang F, Foster ED, Cavanaugh JE, Polgreen PM.
 

Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Although influenza has been associated with asthma exacerbations, it is not clear the extent to which this association affects healthcare use in the United States (U.S.). The first goal of this project was to determine whether, and to what extent, the incidence of asthma hospitalizations is associated with seasonal variation in influenza. Second, we used influenza trends (2000-2008) to help predict asthma admissions during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic.
METHODS: We identified all hospitalizations between 1998 and 2008 in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project during which a primary diagnosis of asthma was recorded. Separately, we identified all hospitalizations during which a diagnosis of influenza was recorded. We performed time series regression analyses to investigate the association of monthly asthma admissions with influenza incidence. Finally, we applied these time series regression models using 1998-2008 data, to forecast monthly asthma admissions during the 2009 influenza pandemic.
RESULTS: Based on time series regression models, a strong, significant association exists between concurrent influenza activity and incidence of asthma hospitalizations (p-value<0.0001). Use of influenza data to predict asthma admissions during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic improved the mean squared prediction error by 60.2%.
CONCLUSIONS: Influenza activity in the population is significantly associated with asthma hospitalizations in the U.S., and this association can be exploited to more accurately forecast asthma admissions. Our results suggest that improvements in influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment may decrease hospitalizations of asthma patients.
 

Respirology. 2013 Aug 12. doi: 10.1111/resp.12165. [Epub ahead of print]